“A bad system will beat a good person every time." W. Edwards Deming
Global System Trends and Risks
I apply systems thinking.
I analyze Global System processes and structures, Global Order and the shifts of change.
I assess global trend developments and risks.
I provide an expertise on geopolitical and geoeconomic due diligence as well as systemic risks.
I organize and moderate expert workshops and webinars for public and private clients.
I have predicted the new Global System bipolarity
and coined the term Dragonbear (systemic coordination between China and Russia )
About Me
With 26 years of professional and academic expertise spanning security, defense, and strategic foresight, Velina Tchakarova is a geopolitical strategist and founder of FACE — For A Conscious Experience. Her work centers on translating geopolitical complexity into actionable intelligence for corporations, institutions, and policymakers navigating Cold War 2.0, the rise of Middle Powers, and the structural shifts reshaping the global order.
Through FACE, Velina develops bespoke strategic assessments, scenario planning frameworks, and foresight workshops for clients across the public and private sectors. Her approach combines rigorous analytical methodology with deep regional expertise, enabling decision-makers to anticipate risks, identify opportunities, and act with strategic clarity in an environment of accelerating uncertainty.
In 2024, she earned a certification in Mastering Foresight: Scenario-Based Planning from the George Washington University Center for Excellence in Public Leadership (GW-CEPL), complementing her long-standing practice as a strategic foresight facilitator.
CURRENT AFFILIATIONS
Velina currently serves on the Scientific Advisory Board of the European Forum Alpbach and the Advisory Board of Eastern Circles, a Paris-based geoeconomics think tank focused on Eastern Europe and Ukraine. She holds a visiting fellowship at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India’s premier independent global think tank.
She is a member of the Strategic and Security Policy Advisory Board of the Science Commission at the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defense, participates in the Vienna Economic Forum, and serves on the peer review board of the Defence Horizon Journal.
PREVIOUS ROLES
Velina previously served as Director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES) in Vienna, one of Austria’s leading independent research institutes on European integration, security, and defense policy. She also served as lecturer at the Real-World Risk Institute, the practitioner-led risk education program founded by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
SPEAKING & ADVISORY WORK
A frequent voice at international conferences, expert panels, and media platforms, Velina provides analysis on geopolitical shifts, emerging power dynamics, and their strategic implications for business and governance. She is regularly commissioned for research, consulting, lecturing, and publishing across the public and private sectors.
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PhD Candidate University of Vienna, Austria
M.A. Political Science/Political Science of South Asia in Heidelberg, Germany
BA International Relations and Macroeconomics in Sofia, Bulgaria
Research
As an accomplished researcher in geopolitics, I actively contribute to national and international research projects and consortia, such as FFG in Austria and or Horizon Europe. My participation in such projects helps deepen my understanding of evolving geopolitical developments and continually broadens my expertise. In addition to project-based research, I also contribute to the global discourse through my writing. I author book chapters, articles, and other scholarly contributions for international and European institutes, think tanks, foundations, and organizations. My published works aim to expand knowledge about geopolitical trends and risks, and to stimulate intellectual engagement with the complexities of the global system.
My research services center around understanding the global system, the risks and trends that shape it, and the transformations occurring within it – including globalization, deglobalization, systemic shifts, and fragilities. I offer in-depth analysis of the global order and the actors shaping it, providing insights into the constellations of global actors such as the USA, China, EU, Russia, India, and others. I examine their interactions and assess their impact on the overall system polarity, be it bipolar or multipolar. Furthermore, my research extends to geostrategy, geopolitics, and geoeconomics. I analyze strategic choices made by different countries and their implications on the global system. My research services offer valuable insights into the complex dynamics of the global system, empowering organizations and decision-makers to navigate an increasingly interconnected world.
To learn more about how my research services can benefit your understanding of the global system and inform your decision-making, please feel free to contact me.
Consulting
FACE provides senior-level geopolitical intelligence to the decision-makers who shape strategy at the highest levels of global business and governance. Our clients include international corporate boards, CEOs, hedge funds and asset managers, public institutions, and senior policymakers who require not just analysis — but the foresight to act before the landscape shifts beneath them. Through closed-door briefings, executive workshops, bespoke research, and strategic advisory mandates, FACE delivers intelligence that is precise, context-specific, and operationally relevant. We do not produce generic reports. We produce the clarity that enables consequential decisions.
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Geopolitical risk is no longer a peripheral concern — it is a primary driver of board-level strategy. I provide comprehensive risk and scenario assessments for international corporations, financial institutions, and investment funds operating across contested geographies. Drawing on the DragonBear analytical framework and 26 years of field expertise, my assessments identify structural risks before they materialize, map emerging pressure points, and define strategic options — equipping clients to move from reactive crisis management to anticipatory positioning.
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In an era of accelerating regulatory fragmentation and geopolitical decoupling, policy intelligence is a strategic asset. I advise corporate executives, institutional investors, and government officials on the policy trajectories shaping their operating environments — from sanctions regimes and export controls to EU regulatory shifts and emerging-market governance risk. My advisory engagements go beyond compliance: they map the political logic behind regulatory change, giving clients the context to anticipate what comes next, not merely react to what has already happened.
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Strategic foresight is the discipline of structuring uncertainty — transforming ambiguous signals into scenarios that decision-makers can act upon. Certified by George Washington University's Center for Excellence in Public Leadership in Scenario-Based Planning, I design bespoke foresight frameworks and facilitate closed-door scenario workshops for executive teams, investment committees, and senior government officials. My methodology integrates geopolitical trend analysis with systemic risk modelling, enabling clients to stress-test their strategies against plausible futures rather than assumed continuities.
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I design and deliver executive education programmes, closed-door briefings, and strategic retreat workshops on geopolitics and foresight for boards, senior management teams, and policy audiences across the public and private sectors. Sessions are built around each client's specific strategic context — their geographies of operation, sector exposures, and decision horizons — rather than generic curricula. Formats range from intensive half-day board briefings to multi-day retreat programmes combining scenario workshops with tailored country and sector risk analysis.
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I provide deep-dive strategic intelligence on Central and Eastern Europe and India — two regions at the intersection of great-power competition, energy transition, and emerging-market opportunity. My analysis integrates political risk, regulatory intelligence, elite network mapping, and geoeconomic trend assessment to give investors, corporate strategists, and institutional clients a granular, decision-ready picture of the operating environment. These engagements are particularly suited to market entry assessments, M&A due diligence, and government relations strategy in rapidly shifting political contexts.
Speaker
Velina Tchakarova is a geopolitical strategist and certified strategic foresight expert with 26 years of professional and academic experience in security, defense, and international affairs. She is the founder of FACE — For A Conscious Experience — and the originator of the DragonBear analytical framework, which maps the structural dynamics of the Russia-China strategic axis and their implications for the global order. Her work defines the analytical vocabulary of Cold War 2.0: the systemic rivalry between the United States and the DragonBear axis, the rise of Middle Powers, and the accelerating bifurcation of the global system.
Velina speaks regularly at international conferences, closed-door executive briefings, board-level strategy sessions, and diplomatic forums. She has addressed audiences including corporate boards and C-suite leadership, hedge fund and asset management clients, institutional investors, and senior government officials and policymakers across Europe, India, and the United States. Her presentations move beyond descriptive analysis to deliver scenario-based intelligence — actionable frameworks that allow decision-makers to position their organizations ahead of geopolitical inflection points.
Velina serves on the Scientific Advisory Board of the European Forum Alpbach, the Advisory Board of Eastern Circles, and holds a visiting fellowship at the Observer Research Foundation (New Delhi). She is a member of the Strategic and Security Policy Advisory Board of Austria's Federal Ministry of Defense Science Commission and serves on the peer review board of The Defence Horizon Journal. She lectures at universities and diplomatic academies internationally, and provides regular geopolitical commentary for European and international broadcast media.
Velina accepts keynote invitations, panel moderation mandates, and closed-door briefing engagements from international conferences, corporate leadership forums, investment events, and institutional audiences. All speaking engagements are tailored to the specific strategic context, sector, and geography of the commissioning organization. To discuss availability and format, contact FACE directly.
Speaking Topics:
Cold War 2.0 & the DragonBear Axis · Global System Transformation · The Rise of Middle Powers · European Strategic Autonomy · Arctic Geopolitics & the Northern Corridor · EU Enlargement & Ukraine's Integration Pathway · Energy Security & Geoeconomic Decoupling · Strategic Foresight & Scenario Planning · India as a Swing Power · Geopolitics of AI & Emerging Technologies
